Trade tensions and falling interest rates: should we fear a recession?

The global economy is showing worrying signs of synchronized slowing. Recent economic data in Europe and Asia, as well as trade tensions between China and the United States, remain the main source of risk. Although the synchronized easing of monetary policies by central banks provides important support for the continuation of the cycle, the presence of negative rates creates distortion in bond values. The bond market is sending signals of recession while stock markets remain resilient for now. In such an environment, active management becomes very important.

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