Last quarter, for the first time since 2007, all countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) posted high synchronized growth. Global growth therefore no longer depends only on China or the U.S., a very positive development for prolongation of the cycle.
The situation improves from month to month in Europe, which has had difficulty coming out of its almost 10-year recession. The election of Emmanuel Macron and the very likely re-election of Angela Merkel will spread stability across the Old Continent. The U.S. economy continues to present near-ideal economic conditions, with stable growth and little inflationist pressure. However, the situation in Canada is the best: for the last two years, the Canadian economy has shot from the back to the head of the pack of the G7. This outperformance has encouraged the Bank of Canada to raise its leading rate twice since the beginning of the summer.
In terms of the markets, we remain positive but expect fewer returns compared to the last few years. It’s the Canadian and overseas markets that are showing the best opportunities at this time.